Six signs of the United States’ defeat in the war against Iran: A conflict that exposed America’s decline

Throughout history, wars have often been more than mere military conflicts – they are decisive moments that reshape the future of the global order. Some wars mark the rise of a power, while others signal its decline. The United States’ war with Iran belonged to this latter category: a battle intended to showcase American might, but instead revealed its limitations and accelerated the erosion of Washington’s global standing.

A 40-day war which was undoubtedly one of the first tangible signs that the world was entering a new era – an era in which the unipolar order of the post–Cold War era was gradually giving way to a multipolar world. In this emerging new order, the resistance of a key regional actor against the world’s largest military power sent a clear message to other nations: the era of America’s uncontested dominance is nearing its end.

Many analysts believe that Trump’s strategic error in this war was comparing Iran to countries like Venezuela, assuming that military and political pressure could swiftly change its power structure. The reality, however, was that Iran was neither Venezuela nor an easy target for quick operations. Instead, it became a strategic quagmire – one that grew increasingly difficult to extricate from as time went on.

Today, the most prominent analysts, leading think tanks, and seasoned American politicians speak of the United States’ defeat in the war against Iran – a defeat that can be summarized across six key dimensions:

1. Failure to achieve objectives: a war that yielded no results               

The first sign of America’s defeat was its inability to achieve the war’s primary objectives. In strategic logic, a war is only considered successful when its goals are realized. In the war with Iran, not only were Trump’s stated aims unmet, but many indicators of Iran’s power remained intact.

Donald Trump waged this war with the confidence of a victor. He spoke of “Iran’s unconditional surrender,” promised to destroy Iran’s military capabilities, and even spoke of influencing the determination of Iran’s future leadership. What unfolded, however, was not the fulfillment of these goals, but the emergence of a multi-layered crisis for his administration.

Senator John Ossoff, a prominent Democrat, offered a blunt post-war assessment: “Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones are not destroyed. The Iranian government is intact, along with its ability to throttle the global energy supply. Its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium also remain untouched.”

These statements clearly show that even within the US, the narrative of American victory was indefensible. Iran’s military power remained robust, and even in certain areas, prominent offensive capabilities were demonstrated during the war. Moreover, Trump’s promise to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz never materialized; this critical passage remained under Iran’s intelligent control.

Under such circumstances, even some former US officials acknowledged the weakness of Washington’s position. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton critically noted, “I worry that the United States is now in a very weak position vis-à-vis Iran, which should be the outlier, should be on the back foot and should be the one held to account.”

2. Military erosion: unprecedented costs for the US

The second sign of defeat was the extensive military damage sustained by the US – damage that was significant not only financially but symbolically. For the first time in history, the advanced F-35 fighter jet, a symbol of American air superiority, was damaged in direct combat. Alongside it, several F-15E Strike Eagles, E3 AWACS aircraft, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and a range of helicopters and support aircrafts were also targeted.

These losses went beyond mere equipment destruction. Reports indicate that the United States expended over one-third of its THAAD missile defense stockpiles during this war – a system designed to counter strategic threats, and replenishing it is both extremely time-consuming and enormously expensive. Nearly all of America’s advanced JASSM-ER cruise missiles were deployed to the region, leaving only a limited reserve available for any other potential crises.

Operationally, the scale of firepower expended was unprecedented. Launching over 900 Tomahawk missiles in a single conflict constitutes a historical record for the US military. Such developments profoundly affect America’s arms balance with countries such as China and could pose serious long-term risks for the US.

On top of all this, perhaps the most significant indicator of US vulnerability was Iran’s successful strikes on American military bases. According to The New York Times, Iran managed to simultaneously strike 13 US military bases across the Middle East – an event with no comparable precedent since World War II and the Empire of Japan attacks [on US forces and equipment]. This event was not merely a tactical defeat; it was a symbolic blow to the image of America’s uncontested power.

3. Economic costs: a war that struck the heart of the US

The third sign of America’s defeat was the economic consequences of the war with Iran – consequences that directly impacted the daily lives of US citizens. The most immediate and tangible impact was the sharp rise in energy prices. The average price of gasoline across the United States climbed to $4.10 per gallon, the highest level in four years. Diesel prices climbed to $5.40 per gallon – a critical figure for the transportation sector and US supply chain.

Disruptions to global trade added further pressure on the US economy. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the supply of key raw materials, including chemical fertilizers, fueling widespread dissatisfaction among American farmers. Across several states, soaring input costs and reduced access to essential materials became a central rallying point for the protests.

Financial markets were also hit hard because of this war. In the first 27 days of the conflict, over $5.2 trillion in US stock market value was wiped out, reflecting investors’ deep concerns about the economic future. At the same time, the direct costs of the war with Iran escalated. According to NBC News, the US government incurred more than $28 billion in expenses during the initial weeks alone.

Ben Rhodes, former US Deputy National Security Advisor, wrote in the description of this situation: “US munitions badly depleted. Hundreds of billions spent. Prices up everywhere. More global economic fallout to come. Just a catastrophic situation even in the best of circumstances.”

4. Domestic legitimacy crisis: a war that eroded Trump’s public support

The fourth sign of America’s defeat was the decline in domestic support for Trump’s administration. For any US government, political legitimacy is a crucial source of power, and costly wars can quickly erode that legitimacy.

A recent CBS News poll revealed that over 65% of Americans are dissatisfied with the government’s economic performance, with a significant portion of this discontent linked to the costs of the war. Additionally, 64% of citizens disapproved of Trump’s handling of the war with Iran – figures that highlight a deep gap between the US government and public opinion.

The declining popularity of senior US defense officials further underscored this trend. Pete Hegseth and J.D. Vance experienced noticeable drops in popularity over the past two months – a situation rarely seen among contemporary US defense secretaries and vice presidents.

5. International isolation: a war that fractured America’s global alliances

The fifth sign of defeat was the growing isolation of the US in the international system. One of America’s greatest sources of power in recent decades has been its extensive network of allies. Yet, during the war with Iran, that network fractured.

Despite repeated pressure from Washington, many NATO members refused to participate militarily in the war. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain openly declared they would not send troops. In East Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Australia also declined to engage militarily. Even Britain – America’s closest ally – refused to join the proposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

At the level of global public opinion, a wave of anti-war protests swept across the world. Large-scale demonstrations in different cities around the world signaled a declining trust in US foreign policy. American scholar Francis Fukuyama described the situation bluntly: “The United States has never been as isolated in the world as it is today.”

6. Inability to defend allies: a crisis in America’s security credibility

The sixth sign of America’s defeat in this 40-day war was its inability to protect its regional allies. During the conflict, US bases, economic infrastructure, and numerous energy facilities in allied countries were disrupted, and their operations suffered significant setbacks. These events demonstrated that the US security umbrella is no longer as reliable as it once was.

In the Occupied Territories as well, many strategic points were targeted by Iranian Armed Forces and Hezbollah, with American and Israeli defense systems failing to intercept these attacks. The widespread damage sent a clear message: the US can no longer guarantee the security of its allies.

Finally, the history of great powers shows that decline rarely begins with a sudden defeat; it unfolds through a combination of costly wars, wrong decisions, and loss of credibility. The 40-day war between the US, the Zionist regime, and Iran was one of these turning points. It not only exposed the limitations of US military power, but also revealed its economic, political, and strategic weaknesses to the world.

This crisis is unlikely to release its grip on the US and the Zionist regime anytime soon. It has left them facing an unprecedented state of helplessness and frustration. The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, recently remarked on this, stating: “Although the aware, vigilant Iranian nation has demonstrated that it’s grieving the great loss of its martyred Leader, it has also – following in the footsteps of the direct inheritors of Ashura – turned this grief into an epic and transformed laments into battle cries. All of this has caused the heavily armed enemy to become totally bewildered and desperate, while earning the admiration of all the freedom-loving people in the world.”

It should also be emphasized that, above all else, this war was a clear indicator of a shift in the global balance of power. A superpower, despite its military superiority, failed to achieve its objectives and instead incurred heavy costs while suffering a sharp decline in its international credibility. 

The martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution had foreseen these days well in advance. On April 26, 2022, he stated: “From the same 20 years ago, the US has become weaker on a daily basis in its domestic and international policies, in its economy and security and everything else. However, today, the world is on the verge of witnessing a new order.”