New world order & new regional structure

Hossein Mohammadisirat, Faculty member at Imam Sadiq (pbuh) university and researcher in Islamic policy

A new world lies ahead of us

A new world lies ahead of us. The formation of a new global order and the disruption of the Western-based international order led by the United States is today agreed upon by prominent analysts—a transformation that Martyr Khamenei pointed to more than a decade ago:

“The outlook of global developments promises a multi-faceted system in which the traditional power blocs are replaced with a group of countries, cultures and civilizations from different economic, social and political origins. The striking events that we have witnessed over the past three decades clearly show that the emergence of new powers has coincided with the decline of the traditional powers.”

The Western-centered order and the collapse of Islamic Authority

In a macro-historical narrative, when we look at the formation of the current global order, we observe a pattern that was realized at the end of World War I and with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. An order that reflected Western invasion and dominance over the East, especially the Islamic world. Westerners, with the stroke of a pen, redrew a new map in the Islamic region, creating countries and erasing territories. “Sykes” and “Picot,” two British and French officers as victors of World War I, imposed a self-made order on West Asia. The Zionist regime was established as a sentinel of Western civilization in the Islamic region and grew like a cancerous tumor among Islamic countries. We Muslims, including us, Iranians, were passive, unaware, and the weaker side in the formation of this Western-centered order, having no role in shaping it.

During World War I, Iran was grappling with a weak Qajar political system and the political chaos following the Constitutional Revolution. The Shah of Iran was a teenager named Ahmad Shah Qajar, who had no understanding of global developments and was not even a passive observer; historians refer to that period as the era of “unawareness.” The people of Iran had no role in political and social action and lacked self-awareness. A fragmented feudal political system, a weak tribal economy, and poor peasants and small farmers describe that era. Iran declared neutrality in World War I, but a weak neutral is doomed to humiliation. Iran was occupied, and due to famine, which was caused by the British army through looting Iranian grain, we witnessed the death of one-third of Iran’s population: between four to seven million people.

Among the components of political power, namely aware elites, social and popular capital, and military and economic capability of the political structure, Iran lacked all three, and naturally had no tools to influence globally. Iran was a weak actor, deeply affected by the emerging global order.

The condition of other Islamic countries in West Asia was no better; the Levant, Egypt, Iraq, the Hejaz, and even the Caucasus were under the dominance of Western victors of World War I.

The United States: A fresh colonial power!

World War II changed the global order to some extent, though its nature did not differ; the same Western and colonial values persisted. The only difference was that the British and other European players, exhausted by the war, gave way to their American counterparts.

Islamic countries and Iran, as before, were passive witnesses of developments and played no role in the global order. In Iran, Reza Pahlavi held power, who ultimately followed Hitler’s movements on the map of his palace with enthusiasm and wished for his victory; his temperament was closer to Hitler’s, and he harbored resentment toward his British master. But fortune did not favor him, and Hitler ultimately lost the war. Iran, like in the first war, declared neutrality, which, as mentioned, a weak neutral is doomed to humiliation. The country was occupied; from the north, the Russians entered Iran, and from the south, the British, and they expelled Reza Shah.

Iran had no role in the global order; its elites were merely passive witnesses observing Western actors and simply choosing a new master. Iranian society had no role in developments, and due to monarchy and dictatorship, the political system lacked social capital. The political structure also lacked sufficient political, economic, and military power to confront Western armies. This situation continued during the second Pahlavi era, and ultimately Iran became a tool for the Americans in securing their interests and, within the framework of the Nixon Doctrine, assumed the role of regional gendarme on behalf of the United States.

The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the birth of a new actor

The victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran marked the beginning of a major fracture in the glass of the Western-centered order in the Islamic region. The Shah, as the Americans’ regional gendarme, fled; the expansion of Islamic political discourse in West Asia began, along with the emergence of anti-Western approaches in the Islamic region.

The Islamic Revolution brought a profound transformation in all three components of political power in Iran.

First, the selection of political elites shifted from the worn-out monarchical system to the foundational model of Wilayat al-Faqih. Imam Khomeini and the martyred Ayatollah Imam Khamenei were leaders who assumed leadership of Iranian society within this framework. Unlike previous leaders, they were not unaware of global political developments but were active critics of the global order. Imam Khomeini designed his Revolution as a critique of the oppression of Western powers, and the people responded positively to this slogan. He considered happiness for the people of the region to lie in ending colonialism and American domination:

“Our complete and consummate happiness shall be on the day when the domination of the East and West imperialists, in particular America the world-hungry is cut and no shadow of it exists on the heads of Muslims. All the followers of the sacred school of Islam will be able to gain their independence in perfect brotherhood and love, and the lost glory will be regained.”

Imam Khomeini even predicted the end of one manifestation of Western civilization during his lifetime, the end of Marxist thought and the collapse of the former Soviet Union, and expressed this prediction in a letter to Gorbachev:

“Mr. Gorbachev,

It is clear to everybody that from now on communism will only have to be found in the museums of world political history, for Marxism cannot meet any of the real needs of mankind. Marxism is a materialistic ideology and materialism cannot bring humanity out of the crisis caused by a lack of belief in spirituality- the prime affliction of the human society in the East and the West alike.”

Second, the social capital of Iran, active public participation, was transformed. The victory of the Islamic Revolution and the widespread participation of the people enabled their decisive role in establishing the Islamic Republic. From this point on, Iranian society became an effective actor in political developments.

Third, the powerful political-economic structure gradually formed, and inward-looking, self-reliant economic approaches along with military development proved effective.

Martyr Imam Khamenei and Iran’s role in the new global order

During the leadership of Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei in Iran, the system moved from the stage of establishment to the stage of consolidation, and major infrastructures for playing a global role. After the end of the imposed war of Iraq against Iran on one hand, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union on the other, conditions evolved toward a US-centered unipolar order, and the Americans, from a totalizing perspective, sought to control power in West Asia. Iran, in this period and in response to all American designs, created its own design and, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and beyond, attempted to halt or obstruct the American project. Iran gradually transformed from an inward-looking regional actor preoccupied with its internal conditions into a transregional actor, and the role of the commander of the Quds Force, General Soleimani, must be considered highly influential in this regard.

Martyr Khamenei, across all three axes and components of power, transformed Iran from a passive actor in previous orders into an active one. Years ago, he spoke of a new order and transformation in the global system. For example, more than a decade ago, with foresight, he stated:

“When we adopt a comprehensive outlook towards the whole world, including the region, we see a basic point. This point is the fact that the dominant system in the world is undergoing change. One can understand and see this. After the First World War, a new system emerged in the world particularly in our region. Certain powers gained strength and they turned into the superpowers of the world. And after the Second World War, it is about 70 years now that this war has been over, this global system became well-established and global management took a special form. In fact, the West, whether in the form of socialism or liberalism which were both western, dominated the management of the world and Westerners took affairs in their own hands. Asia, Africa, Latin America and different other regions in the world moved forward under the influence and domination of Westerners during the past 70 years. However, one can clearly see that this system is changing.”

He enumerates the main signs and components of this transformation as follows:

1. In the new world order, the United States will be isolated, contrary to what George Bush Sr. said ten, twenty years ago about America being the only dominant power in the world.

2. The transfer of political, economic, cultural, and even scientific power from the west to Asia.

3. The expansion of the idea of Resistance and the Resistance Front against coercion. The initiator of this is the Islamic Republic.

He raises the following question in a meeting with students! Pay close attention, with students!

“So, what is Iran’s role in this new order? Where will Iran be placed?”

He believes Iran can play an effective and active role, based on three components:

“First of all, we have human resources. We have really good human resources. The intelligence and talent of young Iranians is higher than the average intelligence and talent of the world… So, our first advantage is that we have good human resources.

The second advantage that we have is the forces of nature, our country’s nature. We have many resources in our country. The diversity of our country’s natural resources is among the rarest in the world… it is also advantaged in terms of its geographical position. We are the crossroads of communication between the east and west and the north and south. If you look at the world map, you will see that we are located at a sensitive point. The east and the west can pass through us, as can the north and south. We can turn into a highly advanced and superior transit location in the world.

The thing that is actually more important than all of the aforementioned advantages, is the logic of our government and civilization, which is the Islamic Republic. We have combined a republic with something that is Islamic. We have combined the people’s presence and their votes and opinions with divine knowledge. Combining these two things is not an easy task, [but] we have been able to do it with God’s grace. It is not flawless; I have never claimed that we don’t have flaws in these areas. No, we do have flaws, but our words, our logic, it is a new type of logic in the world.”

Final steps: US exit from the region and the beginning of a regional war

The grand strategy of Martyr Imam Khamenei in West Asia, in response to US hegemonic presence since 1990, has been the gradual weakening and expulsion of American forces from the region:

“The presence of the US in the region, which leads to corruption, will come to an end. They have started wars in this region. They have brought about discord, sedition and destruction. They have caused infrastructures to be destroyed… This region does not accept the US presence in regional countries. Regional nations and popular governments in the region will undoubtedly not accept that either.”

This strategy has advanced step by step. Iran has been one of the main factors behind American failures in Afghanistan and has acted as a decisive actor in Iraq. In the Mediterranean region, through cooperation with Resistance groups, American actions have been limited, and American plans have failed, including the project of Daesh and the new Middle East map.

It appears that in 2026, the US-Israeli aggression has created an opportunity for Iran to take a final major step in implementing its grand strategy, weakening and eliminating American bases from West Asia. The model of security in the Persian Gulf will no longer be based on external frameworks; rather, a new map is taking shape. Regional conflict and control over the Strait of Hormuz and global energy routes are now being redefined within an Iranian framework. Martyr Khamenei had warned the Americans before the war:

“The Americans should know this too that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war.”

What is clear is that developments in recent years, especially after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, will shape transformations through which the world will witness a new and altered order, and Iran will be a decisive part of this great game.